Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Contango and backwardation in the VIX term structure

@agwarner tweeted a couple of ideas for approximating the contango/backwardation state of the VIX futures structure for those who don't have access to real time VIX futures quotes. I thought I would add a couple more ideas.

One trick is to look at the VIX options, specifically the deep in the money calls. So in this case the OCT 10c and Nov 10c. They usually trade $.20 to $.30 wide markets so taking the mid point of the bid and the ask, and adding to the strike price should give you an approximation in real time within a nickle.

Alternatively if you don't have real time options quotes the CBOE website has 15 minute delayed futures quotes here.

Right now the VIX is firmly in backwardation with the Oct futures trading at a $1.80 premium to the Nov futures. This means the VXX will benefit from the daily roll and the XIV will be negatively impacted by it.

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